Prediction of Convective Initiation and Storm Evolution on 12 June 2002 during IHOP_2002. Part I: Control Simulation and Sensitivity Experiments

The 12–13 June 2002 convective initiation case from the International H2O Project (IHOP_2002) field experiment over the central Great Plains of the United States is simulated numerically with the Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS) at 3-km horizontal resolution. The case involves a developing mesoscale cyclone, a dryline extending from a low center southwestward with a cold front closely behind, which intercepts the midsection of the dryline, and an outflow boundary stretching eastward from the low center resulting from earlier mesoscale convection. Convective initiation occurred in the afternoon at several locations along and near the dryline or near the outflow boundary, but was not captured by the most intensive deployment of observation instruments during the field experiment, which focused instead on the dryline–outflow boundary intersection point. Standard and special surface and upper-air observations collected during the field experiment are assimilated into the ARPS at hourly intervals in a 6-h preforecast period in the control experiment. This experiment captured the initiation of four groups of convective cells rather well, with timing errors ranging between 10 and 100 min and location errors ranging between 5 and 60 km. The general processes of convective initiation are discussed. Interestingly, a secondary initiation of cells due to the collision between the main outflow boundary and the gust fronts developing out of model-predicted convection earlier is also captured accurately about 7 h into the prediction. The organization of cells into a squall line after 7 h is reproduced less well. A set of sensitivity experiments is performed in which the impact of assimilating nonstandard data gathered by IHOP_2002, and the length and interval of the data assimilation are examined. Overall, the control experiment that assimilated the most data produced the best forecast although some of the other experiments did better in some aspects, including the timing and location of the initiation of some of the cell groups. Possible reasons for the latter results are suggested. The lateral boundary locations are also found to have significant impacts on the initiation and subsequent evolution of convection, by affecting the interior flow response and/or feeding in more accurate observation information through the boundary, as available gridded analyses from a mesoscale operational model were used as the boundary condition. Another experiment examines the impact of the vertical correlation scale in the analysis scheme on the cold pool analysis and the subsequent forecast. A companion paper will analyze in more detail the process and mechanism of convective initiation, based on the results of a nested 1-km forecast.